Complicated question with many possible answers. Would need weather conditions as well as sea Condition to make a judgment Call. If the wind conditions over the water are 40 kts And you landed into the wind then you can theoretically touchdown at zero ground speed. Under the same conditions if you pull the chute, Then you would hit the water at 40 kts Ground speed, or water speed if you prefer. In my Coast Guard career I have seen a number of airplanes land in the ocean.In a tricycle gear like a CT you can expect to be upside down in your seatbelt and that is not an easy position to get out of unless you have your seatbelt cutter handy. There are a lot more considerations but I will leave you with this information for now.