Changes due to Covid-19

[Arian]

Update: we have returned to normal operations.  The best way to reach us is still via e-mail.

Due to recent developments with Covid-19, Flight Design USA will be operating with a reduced staff until further notice.
The best way to reach us will be via e-mail.
For technical questions and parts inquiries, use topservice@flightdesignusa.com
For all other inquiries, use flightdesignusa@rcn.com
We apologize for any delays and will try to help you as soon as possible.

[cdarza]

Wishing everyone the best in this very difficult time.   

[GrassStripFlyBoy]

This will be a very critical week in the US, watching the data closely, and not liking the curve.  Fortunately my industry and employer supplies to medical field and we're classified an essential business.  I have seen the auto supply chain come to a quick halt this week, my auto industry pals are reporting large lay off's today - not good.  Another interesting bit of news, I sold a pile of rapid tooling mold base inserts to several automotive shops today, they are selected to build injection molds with 1 week lead times for General Motors in support of the respirator project to build capacity on this upcoming urgent need.  1 week lead times are unheard of for steel injection mold builds, that is usually just the design time, forget manufacturing.  One shop bought 40.  I'm an eternal optimist on most all things in life, and will weather this storm, but buckled up hard around home and financially as I'm seeing things becoming far worse before improving - I hope I'm wrong.  A couple weeks ago I filled several gas cans to keep ready in hanger, I'm self quarantining just fine in the CT, flew yesterday in a CAVU beauty of a day.  Plan to stay away from gas pumps until Michigan lifts the stay at home situation, that is at least three weeks from today.

[Warmi]

Why would you want to stay away from gas pumps ? Just wash your hands after pumping gas and you will be fine - this is not Ebola , you know ...

[GrassStripFlyBoy]

I have zero concern about contracting it, young (ish) and super healthy, heck - I probably already have it, been out of country and in several states recently, work in sales and shake A LOT of hands...  The situation is on verge of going exponential cases this week simply because people are passing it around, and I'm following the stay at home order to the best I can.  Watch NY city over the next two weeks, then we'll see what is coming for the rest of country, at least other major metro areas.  If I'm wrong, I'll consider it doing my part to help, no loss.  If I'm right, I'll have a 2018 CTLS upgrade in the hanger a lot sooner than I was planning.

[Warmi]

That’s fine , I see logic behind containing it but this is not some kind of terrifying magic ... you don’t end up infecting others if you follow certain very simple rules like don’t go out if you are symptomatic and can potentially spread it ( coughing , sneezing etc ) - and if you are not , you are just wasting your time sitting at home - at least that’s my take on it.

[okent]

I agree with Darrell that the next 2 weeks will tell us what to expect.  The spring break infections haven't popped up yet and when that happens everyone under 30 will start to take it seriously.

I'm an ENT doc in Tulsa and Friday of last week was when things really shifted here.

I expect this to be a serious issue for the next 6 weeks and then taper off.

Good time to have your own plane, you couldn't get me on a commercial flight right now.

 

FYI, the main spread is by hand to face contact.  Unless you are in a confined space with a visibly sick person or they cough or sneeze then a mask really doesn't help much.

If they are actively sick then a mask is helpful.  N95/N100 masks filter particles .3 microns and larger and the virus is .12 microns, but the are better than a bandana.

Stay safe and wash your hands often.

 

Edited to add that the benefit of everyone staying home is that 75% of those infected have no symptoms and are just dusting the world with unseen risk.

We have the young and middle age and elderly in the hospitals critically ill.  It's touching every age group.

Warmi, I'm not pointing a finger at you at all, just adding my opinion.

[FlyingMonkey]

9 hours ago, GrassStripFlyBoy said:

I have zero concern about contracting it, young (ish) and super healthy, heck - I probably already have it, been out of country and in several states recently, work in sales and shake A LOT of hands...  The situation is on verge of going exponential cases this week simply because people are passing it around, and I'm following the stay at home order to the best I can.  Watch NY city over the next two weeks, then we'll see what is coming for the rest of country, at least other major metro areas.  If I'm wrong, I'll consider it doing my part to help, no loss.  If I'm right, I'll have a 2018 CTLS upgrade in the hanger a lot sooner than I was planning.

There are lots of people previously in excellent health in their 20s and 30s on ventilators in Italy.  In fact, Italy is no longer putting patients over 60 on ventilators, because they have so many younger patients that need them.  Youth and good health are NOT protecctive against this virus.  

[FlyingMonkey]

The evidence shows the virus can survive 8-14 days on surfaces, and can linger in the air in aeresolized particles following a cough or sneeze for up to an hour.  These are good reasons to stay separate from other people and out of environments you don’t control as much as practical.

This thing is not the flu, the transmission rates are much higher and the mortality rate is as hight as 6.5% compared to 0.1-0.2% for flu.  Over 60% of fatalities in China were men, so men might be at higher risk.  Hypertension seems to carry higher risk of the disease getting serious; one survey showed 40% of fatalities had high blood pressure before getting sick.  There’s also some evidence Ibuprofen (Advil) might actually worsen the disease progression.

I’ve been doing a lot if research, and this bug is very nasty.  Please don’t take chances and stay safe.

[okent]

That's what we are seeing in Tulsa as well.  The young are getting very sick as well.  They may live but are still going on vents.

 

Just to clarify, the ibuprophen warning is now considered to be unfounded. 

The mortality is now considered about 1%.

[FlyingMonkey]

2 hours ago, okent said:

That's what we are seeing in Tulsa as well.  The young are getting very sick as well.  They may live but are still going on vents.

 

Just to clarify, the ibuprophen warning is now considered to be unfounded. 

The mortality is now considered about 1%.

I think that is the US mortality, in Italy it's over 6%.  It's likely an issue where when unlimited resources are available it's closer to1%, and as resources get limited the rate climbs, as one might predict.

I have seen conflicting info on Ibuprofen, so it's hard to know what the real answer is.  There are other alternatives so I'd personally play it safe.

 

EDIT:  Found current worldwide data:  ~390,000 confirmed cases, and 17,156 deaths, for a mortality rate of 4.39%.

[Warmi]

4 hours ago, FlyingMonkey said:

There are lots of people previously in excellent health in their 20s and 30s on ventilators in Italy.  In fact, Italy is no longer putting patients over 60 on ventilators, because they have so many younger patients that need them.  Youth and good health are NOT protecctive against this virus.  

I don’t see that being reflects anywhere in available data ...in fact , the distribution of ICU and mortality cases in Italy, as far as I could tell,  is highly correlating to age and any existing comorbidity.

 

[okent]

I agree Warmi, it's not getting wide press coverage and I think in part because of the speed at which this has unfolded.  Just think about what your concerns were 6 weeks ago.   

The old and frail die but the young and healthy are still getting really sick, even to the point of requiring a ventilator.  I've been in the meetings in my city where we went over the protocol of who gets what resources and it's based on age and comorbidities.   Very sobering to see.  

I just hope the measures in place are enough to save a bunch of people from illness and death.  And that we can avoid the situation that is happening in Italy.

NYC is sure headed that way though.

[FlyingMonkey]

 

According to WebMD, 20% of US deaths were young adults. 

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200319/20-percent-of-us-covid-19-deaths-were-young-adults#1

 

 

[Warmi]

....20% occurred among adults aged 20-64 years.

Again without knowing comorbidity data there is no way to tell one way or another - heck, I can pretty much tell you right away that this 20-64 range will have significant numbers of various diseases like emphysema or asthma not to mention all sorts of immune suppressing side effects of various medications.

If you look at various heart disease statistics, I can guarantee you that 20-64 group will have majority of them , let alone 20%.

The point is , everyone seems to running on unreliable numbers that are constantly changing and will most definitely result in very different mortality rates than currently projected once this thing is over.

[FlyingMonkey]

1 hour ago, Warmi said:

The point is , everyone seems to running on unreliable numbers that are constantly changing and will most definitely result in very different mortality rates than currently projected once this thing is over.

If the data is considered unreliable, and you're dealing with a potentially deadly situation, the most conservative/cautious approach is generally warranted.  If you suspect an engine fire is possible but you're unsure, the best course is not to assume you *don't* have a fire and continue the flight...the best course is to land.

It sounds like you want to minimize the problem, and you have that right.  But I have friends in Italy who are telling me the situation is *way* worse than advertised and basically all the governments are soft-pedaling it to reduce panic. 

Two healthcare workers in my state in their 30s with no pre-existing conditions have died in the past three days, and my state has tiny numbers of infected compared to NY.  My state has had 32 deaths out of 1026 cases, for a death rate 0f 3.12%.  Confirmed cases are doubling approximately every 48 hours.  56% of those who've died are aged 18-59.  You can assume that all those people were frail and weak, but given that the two I mentioned above were not, there is no reason to assume so.

 

[Warmi]

1 hour ago, FlyingMonkey said:

If the data is considered unreliable, and you're dealing with a potentially deadly situation, the most conservative/cautious approach is generally warranted.  If you suspect an engine fire is possible but you're unsure, the best course is not to assume you *don't* have a fire and continue the flight...the best course is to land.

It sounds like you want to minimize the problem, and you have that right.  But I have friends in Italy who are telling me the situation is *way* worse than advertised and basically all the governments are soft-pedaling it to reduce panic. 

Two healthcare workers in my state in their 30s with no pre-existing conditions have died in the past three days, and my state has tiny numbers of infected compared to NY.  My state has had 32 deaths out of 1026 cases, for a death rate 0f 3.12%.  Confirmed cases are doubling approximately every 48 hours.  56% of those who've died are aged 18-59.  You can assume that all those people were frail and weak, but given that the two I mentioned above were not, there is no reason to assume so.

 

I am not minimizing the problem ... I am trying to maximize the fact that "the cure" being applied right now is so far much , much worse than the problem itself - at least given current numbers.

[FlyingMonkey]

2 hours ago, Warmi said:

I am not minimizing the problem ... I am trying to maximize the fact that "the cure" being applied right now is so far much , much worse than the problem itself - at least given current numbers.

DWhat do you mean by this, and what you think should be done differently?  Do you think we should be continuing our lives normally?

[Mike Koerner]

"...at least given current numbers"

Mike Koerner

[Warmi]

50 minutes ago, FlyingMonkey said:

DWhat do you mean by this, and what you think should be done differently?  Do you think we should be continuing our lives normally?

Please..   this is not a binary choice between locking everyone regardless of their risk exposure and doing nothing.

 

[FlyingMonkey]

1 hour ago, Warmi said:

Please..   this is not a binary choice between locking everyone regardless of their risk exposure and doing nothing.

 

I never said so.  But you said we're doing it wrong, so what's right?  Not judging, genuinely tryingbto understand.

[Warmi]

Attempting to isolate people who are particularly vulnerable to the effects of the virus while allowing healthy people to work - all that while still encouraging proper workspace sanitation.

We already know via reports from other countries that this is not H1N1 or the Spanish flu both of which were know to be deadly to younger populations. We are nowhere near testing enough people and thus various mortality graphs, like the one posted by Mike, are essentially meaningless.  For all we know there could be already hundreds of thousands of people infected with this virus who are not being factored into the equation.

There doesn’t seem to be any rational consideration given to careful cost-benefit analysis of what we are doing here and it more resembles some kind of political stampede with politicians like Cuomo hysterically declaring “if all these measures save just one life , they are worth it” which is patently false and stupid, especially when there are hundreds of thousands of people being pushed into unemployment lines with a single stroke of a pen.

Let’s see how it all shakes out - there will be some interesting stats coming out of this debacle, especially given so much variability between states in how the handle the pandemic.

https://reason.com/2020/03/24/massive-coronavirus-testing-is-the-way-to-help-save-the-economy/

[FlyingMonkey]

1 hour ago, Warmi said:

Attempting to isolate people who are particularly vulnerable to the effects of the virus while allowing healthy people to work - all that while still encouraging proper workspace sanitation.

We already know via reports from other countries that this is not H1N1 or the Spanish flu both of which were know to be deadly to younger populations. We are nowhere near testing enough people and thus various mortality graphs, like the one posted by Mike, are essentially meaningless.  For all we know there could be already hundreds of thousands of people infected with this virus who are not being factored into the equation.

There doesn’t seem to be any rational consideration given to careful cost-benefit analysis of what we are doing here and it more resembles some kind of political stampede with politicians like Cuomo hysterically declaring “if all these measures save just one life , they are worth it” which is patently false and stupid, especially when there are hundreds of thousands of people being pushed into unemployment lines with a single stroke of a pen.

Let’s see how it all shakes out - there will be some interesting stats coming out of this debacle, especially given so much variability between states in how the handle the pandemic.

https://reason.com/2020/03/24/massive-coronavirus-testing-is-the-way-to-help-save-the-economy/

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it *sounds* like you're saying something to the effect of "data is meaningless, we have to wait and see how it shakes out".  The problem I see with that is by the time it shakes out if you really have a major problem, it's unrecoverable.  All we have is the data of confirmed cases versus death and the demographics associated with those numbers.  We can't ignore the data we do have because it's incomplete, and we can't just presume there's no problem because we're not testing everybody with kits that aren't available.  It would be nice to test everybody, but those tests are only a snapshot of a moment in time; any person tested could be infected before they get the negative results of the test (which takes days)!

Isolating people that are vulnerable and letting everybody else roam free is problematic because you can't separate the two populations.  If I'm super healthy and my wife has COPD, I'm not going to go live somewhere else.  So if I'm going to work, I'm dragging home whatever I come in contact with.  How many 20- and 30-somethings are living with their parents?  Should they go off to work and then come home to their 60-75 year old parents?  You can't treat the vulnerable population as separate, because they are not and never will be, unless you round them up and send them to a camp somewhere against their will.

In fact, what you are describing has been tried...in Italy.  The Italians let people travel and continue working well past the point where they had a true medical crisis.

I do still disagree with your assertion that the young are not vulnerable, I have seen way too much evidence to the contrary for me to ignore.  But this is a good discussion, as long as we all stay civil we can certainly disagree and a have a conversation about it.  And don't get me wrong; I am not in favor of forced government quarantines and restrictions on businesses.  What I am for is voluntary action on the part of individuals and businesses to be smart and stop the spread.

[AGLyme]

I grew up in an era when I would come back to the house after wiping out on my bike over at the neighbors and my father would say "walk it off, you will be alright".  Nowadays, parents call the ambulance, the kid would take antibiotics, therapy would be scheduled and the neighbor would be sued....; )

Governments downplay, the Press overplays... a condition as old as the hills.  My belief is that if 3-4 of us -- out of 100 cases -- are going to die from an infection that spreads from human interaction, and the only way to "control" it until the pills/shots arrive, which may take 12-18 months, is to separate and continue to bathe in disinfectants and wear masks in public and at work.  It sucks, but there is no other way until the pills/shots arrive.  Any of us would feel terrible if we didn't adhere to the current preventative basics and we got our family sick.  3-4% is a scary ratio when it hits home.  

The goodness that will come out of this is I believe is that we humans will have to learn how to live together and depend on each other again.  Meanwhile, I will drive to the airport and pre-flight the CT just to get out of the house as everyone is here and we are "learning" how to live as one... a nightmare, but the alternative is far worse.

[Brian]

Since it appears you can be infected by the virus for a week before any symptoms appear, the only safe course is to assume you are already infected and then take the necessary precautions to avoid infecting anyone else.